CT Data Collaborative recently published a report to evaluate shifts in both voter turnout and decision making in this year’s presidential election. The report was based on official election data recently released by Connecticut’s Secretary of the State. The largest trends discovered by the report mirrors those found nationwide; that voter turnout overall decreased, while Trump’s share of the vote increased, even in firmly Democrat-majority states such as Connecticut.
The report found that there was a 4-point decline in voter turnout overall in this year’s presidential elections compared to 2020. While 80% of the state’s registered voters in 2020 cast their ballots, only 76% did so in this year’s election, with 73% of Connecticut municipalities experiencing a decrease in turnout.
The most significant declines in voter turnout were noticed in Bridgeport and East Hartford. Bridgeport fell a massive 20 points, from 72% turnout in 2020 to only 52% in 2024, while East Hartford’s voter turnout fell 15 points, from 66% to 51%. Hartford was also found to have continued its now three-election trend of decreased voter turnout. Hartford’s turnout declined 13 points from 2020 to 2016 (63% turnout in 2016 and 50% in 2020) and declined another 7 points in 2024, with only 43% turnout.
While Connecticut’s larger cities like East Hartford and Bridgeport saw decreased voter turnout, some of its smallest municipalities showed dramatic increases. North Stonington and North Canaan saw increased turnouts by 12 and 11 points respectively. Other major gainers were the towns of Sterling, Clinton and Woodbury, which increased by 9-points, 8-points, and 7-points respectively.
Another notable trend highlighted by CT Data was the swing in the percentage of voters who voted for Trump. While Biden in 2020 received 4% more of the vote than Hillary did in 2016, Harris received 3% less of the vote than Biden in 2024. On the other hand, Trump’s share of the vote increased by 3 points from 2020 to 2024. Only 18 of the state’s municipalities, 10% percent, saw Democrats increase their share of the vote, while 141 towns, 88%, saw an increased percentage of Trump voters.
The largest decrease in Democrat voter percentages were found in Milford, Bridgeport, Danbury, New Britain and Stamford. Harris secured 8% less of the vote than Biden did in Milford, 7% less in Bridgeport, and 6% less in Danbury, New Britain and Stamford. Of Connecticut’s 15 towns that flipped party majority from 2020 to 2024, only one of them flipped from a Republican majority to a Democrat. This lone outlier was found to be the town of Warren. While Republicans held a narrow majority of Warren’s voting percentage in 2020 (50%), Trump secured 2% less of the vote in 2024 (48%).
The other fourteen towns that flipped from Democrat to Republican voting majorities were; Willington (6-point swing), New Milford (5-point swing), North Canaan (4-point swing), Brookfield (3-point swing), Bristol (3-point swing), Derby (2-point swing) Durham (2-point swing), Haddam (2-point swing), Montville (2-point swing), Hampton (2-point swing), Woodstock (2-point swing), Suffield (2-point swing), and Burlington (1-point swing).
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