A change in federal transportation funding policy implemented by President Donald Trump’s administration tying federal transportation funds to marriage and birth rates could leave Connecticut low on the list when it comes to doling out transportation grant money, according to an analysis by CT Data.
U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy issued a memo to states on January 16, indicating that “to the maximum extent permitted by law,” federal DOT support will “give preference to communities with marriage and birth rates higher than the national average.” According to the memo, the change “shall strive to promote the economic opportunities of DOT programs, policies and activities for families and communities.”
Although Connecticut’s marriage rate matches the national average, the state’s birth rate is among the lowest in the country, according to an analysis by CT Data, which found, “Connecticut’s birth rate is relatively low, at 4.5%, which places it at 46th out of the 52 localities.”
“When combining these marriage and birth metrics into a composite score, Connecticut ranks 45th out of 52 localities, highlighting how severely the state would be disadvantaged under the proposed funding approach,” Chase Wilson of CT Data wrote.
Diving into the state’s Census tracts, CT Data further found that Connecticut towns that had high marriage and birth rates “are predominantly found in wealthier and more rural areas, while notably absent from urban centers like New Haven, Bridgeport, Waterbury, and Hartford.”
Those communities were predominantly white and of higher household income who have higher rates of ownership of multiple vehicles and less reliance on public transportation than urban communities with lower marriage and birth rates.
“Communities with higher rates of car-free households typically have a greater reliance on – and need for – robust public transportation and walkable infrastructure,” Wilson wrote. “By prioritizing [High Marriage and Birth Rate] communities, resources would be directed toward areas where residents are more likely to have personal vehicles, likely favoring road and bridge projects over public transit investments. This would further disadvantage communities where buses, trains, and other public transportation options are most critical.”
During his budget address, Gov. Ned Lamont noted the federal policy change in his 2025 budget address, saying his is “not as confident as I once was about the ongoing rebuild of our state because every day, we get another curve ball from Washington.”
“Last week, the federal Department of Transportation circulated a memo notifying us that all road and bridge grant making will be subject to some revised economic principles,” Lamont said. “Preference will be given to communities where marriage and birth rates are higher than the national average. Don’t tell anybody but we are lower than the national average, so my children hurry up and get married, go forth and procreate, and your community may get a new bridge.”
Just days prior to release of the memo, the Connecticut DOT published a five-year, $16 billion capital plan, anticipating “approximately $5.02 billion in federal and state capital funding for all transportation modes,” including $2.1 billion for road and bridge infrastructure, and $2.7 billion for bus and rail investments.
Connecticut’s Special Transportation Fund, which is used for Connecticut’s transportation infrastructure projects by matching federal transportation grants, has remained a bright spot in Connecticut’s fiscal fortunes, building up a cumulative balance of $570 million over years of surpluses. That cumulative balance is expected to grow to nearly $700 million by 2027, according to the Office of Fiscal Analysis (OFA).
But the policy change at the federal level to focus on states and communities with high marriage and birth rates could represent a reversal of fortunes for Connecticut; according to OFA, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act increased Connecticut’s formula grants for transportation “by an average of 43% over federal fiscal years 2022-2026.”
“This increase in federal dollars is a partial driver of the increase in state spending because virtually all federal transportation money requires a state match (typically 20%),” the OFA’s report said. “Therefore, as the amount of federal funds received by the state increase, it is expected that state spending will likewise increase in order to take full advantage of available federal funds.”
Connecticut, however, has long been on the losing end of federal funding, sending far more money to the federal government than it receives back through federal grants, contracts, and funding for social programs like Medicaid, according to yearly reports by the Rockefeller Center, which found Connecticut received the least amount of federal funding compared to what the state paid in federal taxes.
Connecticut has long had a lower birth rate and aging population, according to Census data. Connecticut has traditionally seen higher outmigration to other states, which, when combined with a lower birth rate, has led to flat or declining population numbers.
“Tying transportation funding to high marriage and birth rates will likely disadvantage Connecticut as a whole, and increase divisions that already exist within the state,” Wilson wrote on CT Data. “The analysis shows that such a policy would favor whiter, wealthier communities that rely on personal cars versus public transit, while reducing support for communities with greater racial diversity, higher poverty rates, and higher use of public transit – precisely the communities that have already been harmed by disinvestment.”
According to the U.S. DOT memo, federal funding will also prioritize states that “utilize user-pay models” like tolls, direct funding to local opportunity zones, and “prohibit recipients of DOT support or assistance from imposing vaccine and mask mandates.”
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