Connecticut is likely to become even more blue based on migration patterns and real estate purchases, according to an analysis by Realtor.com. That could further frustrate state Republicans, who have lost a considerable amount of influence at the Capitol since the 2018 election as Connecticut heads into its two weeks of early voting.
Connecticut – along with Maine, Delaware, and Washington D.C. – was named as one of the four states that will likely become even more aligned with the Democrat Party. Realtor developed its analysis by combining online home shopping data and county-level election results from the 2020 election.
“As more people move across state lines, their voting habits could have the potential to sway election outcomes, especially in crucial swing states, where even small changes in the electorate can tip the scales,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com. “This dynamic raises important questions about how migration trends could influence the future of American politics this year and beyond.”
Despite the majority of Connecticut voters being unaffiliated, Connecticut is far from a swing state in presidential elections, and the down-ballot results could also skew more Democratic, particularly in Fairfield County, which saw a massive influx of New Yorkers who tend to be reliably Democrat during the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to Realtor’s calculations, Connecticut saw 2.16 percent of shopping traffic from “blue shoppers” and 1.43 percent of shopping traffic from “red shoppers,” indicating the state may see more of a shift toward the Democratic side.
Not so, says Connecticut GOP Chairman Ben Proto, who says voting registration numbers for the year have shown an increase in registered Republicans and small decreases for both Democrats and unaffiliated.
“The only party in the state of Connecticut that has gained voters between October 31, 2023, through September of 2024 was the Republican Party,” Proto said. “While we’ve seen an influx from New York and New Jersey, some of the bluer states into Connecticut, I think overall the registration is slightly favoring us.”
Proto adds that while some parts of the state like Fairfield County have shifted more Democratic, other regions of the state have shifted in the opposite direction.
“There may be a shift more Democratic in Fairfield County, but we also know it’s become more Republican in Eastern Connecticut,” Proto said. “Overall, the political demographics are not changing considerably. They may be shifting around the state, but statewide, I don’t know that there’s anything tremendous one way or the other.”
Connecticut Republicans saw steady gains during Gov. Dannel Malloy’s administration, eventually gaining enough seats to have a tie in the Senate and nearly a tie in the House until 2018, when President Donald Trump’s influence trickled down to state races and Republicans saw massive losses, leaving Democrats in full control of every lever of state government.
That loss included long-time state senator Scott L. Frantz, R-Greenwich, who lost his seat to Democrat Alexandra Kasser by a narrow margin in 2018. While Sen. Ryan Fazio picked up Kasser’s seat in a special election following her resignation, it was a hard-fought and close election. In 2022, Fazio squeaked out a win by only 89 votes, and he faces another tight race this November against Nick Simmons.
Similarly, long-time Sen. Tony Hwang, R-Fairfield, is facing a competitive challenge from Democrat Rob Blanchard, who jumped into the race after leaving roles in Gov. Ned Lamont’s administration and the Comptroller’s Office. Hwang’s victory margins have steadily decreased since 2016 when he won re-election with a 60-40 percent victory to 2022 when won by only one percent.
Proto says he believes both races will be close, but ultimately believes Fazio will hold on to his seat, while Hwang’s re-election may hinge on how many voters he can pick up in Bethel and Newtown, which he says tend to lean more Republican.
U.S. Census data initially showed an influx of people into Connecticut in 2021 and 2022, mostly from New York and Massachusetts. That data was apparently incorrect due to a data processing error, and Connecticut actually saw another net population loss. However, other migration data from the Internal Revenue Service and private moving companies show that New York remains the greatest source of in-migration, with 16,971 New Yorkers moving into Connecticut between 2021 and 2022.
Proto says that while the study assumes people from New York and New Jersey are Democrats, they may also be more moderate Democrats who have moved from those states to get away from progressive policies and politicians.
“I think you’re beginning to see that shift as well,” Proto said. “I think Trump is going to do better this year in Connecticut than he did in 2020. If he can do better than he did in 2016 – when he lost by fourteen or fifteen points – if he’s under that number, we’re going to do really well in Connecticut.”
Request for comment to Connecticut Democrat Party Chair Nancy DiNardo was not returned by publication.
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